Stocks and Indices reached new high in May 2024

US major indices broke new historic records this month:
DJI 40,003
S&P500 5,321
Nasdaq Composite 17,019
Asia markets registered new high in May YTD include:
Singapore STI 3,330
China Shanghai Composite Index 3,171
Hong Kong HSI 19,636
Taiwan weighted index hit historic record of 21,858.
In Singapore, these following individual stocks in the STI also experienced a cruel summer (lyrics) in May.
The three local banking stocks hit intra-day historic high respectively:
DBS $35.95
UOB $30.88
OCBC $14.51
These next two stocks’ prices also surged after announcements of their respective new huge contracts won:
(1) Seatrium stock price up 3 days from $1.54 to $1.87 despite its perennial loss-making performance.
(2) YZJ shipping stock price up 6 days from $1.74 to $2.2.
Another stock that went up noticeably in May2024 is SingTel. It just announced a lower full year result, but along with a value realization dividend (VRD) component to be distributed in two tranches, its dividend in August totaled 7.9 cents, ex-date 1 Aug. Its stock price up from below $3.40 to a high of $3.48.
Such good performance in this region, especially in the month of May is exceptional.
Time to take profit?

written by
George Seah Singapore 佘文发硕士
(for my blog)

An eventful Apr2024 多变的甲辰四月

This April, the month of QingMing prayer and Tax filing, is extraordinarily eventful. These include:

• • A solar eclipse across North America.
  • Taiwan’s east coast earthquakes at Richter scale 7.3 (3apr) and 6.3 (23apr) respectively, destroying lives, major buildings in epic center HuaLien. This disrupted high-end chips production and related supply chains.
  • Janet Yellen’s likely final official visit to China as US Treasury Secretary. Shortly followed by Antony Blinken’s likely final official visit to China as US Secretary of State. Both ended with no real improvement in those thorny US-China trade issues.
  • Biden signed a bi-partisan bill to ban TikTok in US unless it is sold to American within the next one year.
  • US congress and senate passed a bill funding military aid to Ukraine, Israel, & Taiwan etc, instead of calling an immediate ceasefire or addressing on-going warring parties’ humanitarian disasters.
  • South Korea parliamentary election ended with its ruling party’s seats won decimated.
  • A higher and longer Fed Fund rate prevails, underpinned by latest NFPR report, core PCE, CPI data etc.
  • Commodity (gold, copper, cocoa, aluminum, crude oil etc) prices surged to record high in Apr, with price of bitcoin, USD index all went up synchronously.
  • Iran fired few hundreds of drones and missiles into Israel on 13 Apr, to up the ante of middle-east conflict. Israel retaliated symbolically on 19 Apr, sending drones attacks into Syria, Iraq and Iran.
  • Israel is preparing to attack Rafah, against US and most international voices. At the eleven hour, ICC threatens to issue arrest warrant against PM Netanyahu. This seems to derail Israeli’s further attacking plan.
  • Bitcoin to half its mining reward by Apr2024 and HK launched 6 spot crypto ETFs to rival US ETFs.
  • PM formally announced his handover date on 15 May 2024. He is likely to take on the role of Senior Minister thereafter.
  • DBS group shares price up more than 6% this month even without adjusting for ex-bonus and ex-dividend from last FY result.
  • Yen tumbled & crossed 160 to a US dollar on 29 Apr, BOJ might have intervened to pull it back to 156 handle.

Written by George Seah Singapore
佘文发硕士
(for my blog)

Singapore can get F1 Grand Prix, WTA finals, Taylor swift, how about TSMC foundries?

After two years of infrastructure and factory building, TSMC’s first make-in-Japan chip production foundry started operating in Kumamoto prefecture by February 2024. In the same month, Japan savoured Taylor Swift’s musical concert performance while the Nikkei 225 index also broke its 34 year record high.
Entering March2024, The Eras Tour frenzy is now in Singapore, starting tonight. Singaporean at large are excited to be in the limelight for such world tour events, including F1 Grand Prix, The WTA finals, culminating to this SEA exclusive Swiftie hype. To be sure, we had held historical events such as China -Taiwan leaders summit, the US -North Korea leaders summit, Shangri-La Dialogue, Aerospace Show and many more. So can we continue one step further to woo over TSMC manufacturing plants?
At the heart of the generative AI development is Nvidia’s nanometer GPU, and TSMC made 70% of such advanced and related nanometer chips. Nvidia’s share price have been breaking new records recently almost on a daily basis, along with US Nasdaq and S&P500 index, while Singapore tech stocks have been struggling in the doldrums. Perhaps priority should now be given to AI related tech hardware and infra-structure build up.
Even if we cannot break the ground with the state-of-the-art 3 to 5 nanometer process, having TSMC plant making 12 to 28 nm chips locally will expand our manufacturing PMI vibe and related Gen AI eco systems in Singapore.
Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, in its 4Q2023 quarterly earning-released press conference said: “generative AI have hit the tipping point”. Indeed its Nasdaq listed share price went through the roof and is now world number three in terms of market cap.

written by
George Seah Singapore 佘文发硕士
(for my blog)

兔年各大指数收官，欢喜迎接龙年！

迎接龙年，龙腾股跃！
written by George Seah
佘文发硕士
(for my blog)

Outlook 2024 一年好景君谨记，最是桃红橘绿时

written by
George Seah Singapore
佘文发硕士
(for my blog)

2023 key events

As hope is not a strategy, summary of 2023 global key events may be better expressed through my Q&A below:

• Amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel war, US vetoed the UNSC resolution for immediate ceasefire, while not intervening the mass bombings of civilians in both directions. Why?
  ans: Balance of power is the lynch-pin for US in the middle-east.
• What is the US and Europe’s funding timeline or exit strategy while sustaining the Russia-Ukraine war for now?
  ans: Dragging it across 2024 US election could be Biden’s re-election strategy as US does not change its Commander-in-Chief with on-going wars.
• Lessons from Ukraine-Russia & Israel-Hamas war: Iron Dome, Patriotic missile defence can indeed minimize fatality in defence, so what is the lesson learnt for the world?
  ans: Iron Dome, Patriotic missile may offer better defence capability than sustaining a fleet of F35B.
• The maturity of generative AI is permeating into almost every layers of jobs worldwide. Will AI resolve political conflict, or adding fuel to the fire?
  ans: The Magnificent Seven are competing fast and furious in development AI while worrying it may take over as a new unfettered power.
• How US kept its unemployment low and managed to circumvent economic recession in 2023, despite a FOMC run up of 11 rate hikes reaching a peak of 5.5%.
  ans: AI, IRA liquidity injection, plus not sending US troops to participate in all new major wars, prevented escalation of conflicts and kept the world economy thriving around US.
• How US is diminishing OPEC+ influence over oil price and swing production?
  ans: US hit a 13 million barrels a day production record this year, plus arbitraging from war-torn oil rich nations.
• Can China win the trade war and high tech sanctions, when they are surrounded by the western superpowers and their ever-growing alliances from G20 members?
  ans: China economy and BRI was badly disrupted in 2023. Trade war and sanctions may not ease until US is imploded with immigrants inundated through their southern border.
• Can the world collaborate in decarbonizing and transiting away from fossil fuel?
  ans: The pre-requisite is to stop all human-made disasters & putting off all on-going bombing carbon fumes. The push for ESG need to be done with DM’s help in getting rid of poverty from EM nations.
• US treasury debts is reaching an astronomical ceiling, when will US treasuries’ rating went below AAA/ AA?
  ans: USD, the current world de facto common currency is not backed by gold. When the music of USD dies, its volatility will resemble the beta of bitcoin & crypto-currencies.
• How Taylor Swift’s networth broke $1b from her world tour of six concerts?
  ans: Her talentedly choreographed audio/ visual wavelengths & movements resonate with every fans’ neurons.

Below is my tabulation of how major world indices fared in 2023:

written by George Seah Singapore
佘文发硕士
(for my blog)

中学历史浮现眼前

written by George Seah Singapore
(for my blog)
佘文发硕士撰文

The world is bracing for the Sixth Middle East war if UNGA’s Oct2023 resolution is being ignored

When bombings inflicting heavy fatalities between Palestine and Israel continued into the forth week, the world is bracing for the Sixth Middle East war. The negative sentiment was reflected in major stock-market indices , and the surge in prices of gold and crude oil etc.
Since the Gaza war started,

• the S&P500 has tumbled -4.5%
• the gold price has shot up by more than 9%
• Crude Oil price has gone up by more than 3%

Last Friday’s closing numbers are as follows:

After the Fifth Middle East war in 1982, attention to this region’s incubating conflict has been relatively muted. With the recent high profile bombings flared up, media reporting worldwide is refocusing back to this epi-center.
Last Friday, the United Nation General Assembly passed a resolution with a majority votes of 120-14, calling for an immediate humanitarian truce in Gaza. Since US and Israel voted against it, this non-binding UNGA resolution will hardly be enforced anytime soon.
written by George Seah Singapore
佘文发硕士
(for my blog)

用《心弃急》面对罗刹股市？阿里寻他千百度，却在灯火阑珊处。

最近看了刀郎的罗刹海市网络视频，
心想股民朋友也应防范罗刹股市中的圆月弯刀（falling knifes)。
股市对初入门者，如入大观园：
基本面，技术面，政策面，
外汇、黄金、利率，
蓝筹、债券，票息，
市盈、市净，股息增长。
外围、宏观，地缘、区域，
指标、术语，蜡烛，周期，趋势，七上八下…
耳熟能详的高科技尖牙股，
十年间已然壮大扩员，估值也今非昔比。
苹果，微软，谷歌，亚马逊，
英伟达，脸书，特斯拉，
牵七发（magnificent seven）而动全身。
如此日日夜夜熙熙攘攘寻寻觅觅，
或许退一步，海阔天空？切记心弃急：
东风夜放花千树，
香榭大道人满路，
阿里寻他千百度 ，
却在灯火阑珊处。(Though buy/ sell is just a simple click away ….)
written by George Seah Singapore
佘文发硕士
(for my blog)
P.S. updated on 21 Sep 2023, with link to closing prices of Alibaba and Baidu respectively.

Singapore corporates’ 2Q23 / 1H23 earnings tabulated in android app

The 2Q23 earning results of our three local banks are tabulated below:

For more results tabulation including US mkt stocks, there is an android app “Lim & Tan SGX fundflow CFA Cal” available for free download:

App bundled with a free CFA calculator
plus ABSD, monthly mortgage loan repayment calculations etc.

• see steps to download the android app from your mobile phone -> google play store
• see examples of a sample housing loan calculation answers
  written by
  George Seah Singapore
  佘文发硕士
  (for my blog)